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Prediction for CME (2022-03-10T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-10T00:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19392/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as a southward halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S40E50, visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-03-09T21:30Z. First of a 2-CME eruption from this filament.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-13T23:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-03-10T11:54Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 445
Longitude (deg): 036E
Latitude (deg): 18S
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: Very obvious filament lift off from southeast quadrant, visible through late UTC evening of 09 March in (for example) Cerro Tololo H-Alpha, AIA304. Observed lift-off time somewhat arbitrary within this window as a result. Somewhat unexpected Earth-bound component given imagery, but at least the shock appears to interact with the CIR leading CH65, perhaps passing Earth around the turn of the UTC day Sunday into Monday. Low confidence as a result of extreme glancing incidence, although imagery from Lasco and STEREO COR2 is very good for the period, with reasonably confidence in the fit itself.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 81.63 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-03-10T13:22Z

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